👊 2040: 10 predictions
A 2040 lens on everyday finance, agents, and privacy.
Looking beyond the cycle: 10 shifts we’re betting on by 2040.
Hej everyone,
Given the long build, GTM and penetration cycles and feedback loops for pre-seed investors and the teams they back, we do not believe at Olive Capital that making annual predictions makes sense.
Hence, here are our 10 PREDICTIONS that we see compounding quietly until 2040.
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By 2040, 15 years from now, we at Olive Capital expect everyday finance to be rebuilt on invisible web3 rails, work and creativity to be reorganized around agent tools, and privacy-selective disclosure to be a default expectation in consumer products. We propose that year after year, we will be grading the progress made towards these predictions, and even if we keep the option to revisit any of these predictions based on fundamental dynamics shifts we might observe, these 10 foreseen shifts are the ones we have the highest conviction on.
From thesis to trajectory: 10 convictions for 2040.
What are our 10 predictions for 2040?
1. Mainstream “super wallets” replace checking accounts.
By 2040, most European consumers will primarily interact with money through smart wallets that aggregate bank, investment, and on-chain assets, with embedded portfolio management and tax intelligence, making traditional retail bank interfaces a secondary layer.
2. Invisible crypto infrastructure in 80% of consumer finance apps.
The majority of mass-market finance apps (payments, savings, remittances, investing) will use tokenized or ledger-based infrastructure under the hood, while abstracting away keys, chains, and protocols from users. “Crypto” will be a backend feature, not a selling point.
3. Consumer-grade portfolio management powered by web3 rails becomes default.
By 2040, automated portfolio tools, bundled into super wallets and everyday finance apps, will deliver institutional-grade construction, rebalancing, and oversight for all users, leveraging tokenized assets and onchain data for seamless multi-asset (fiat + crypto) management without users managing keys.
4. Tax and reporting engines become real-time.
Real-time, AI-driven tax, compliance, and reporting layers will sit between user wallets and institutions, turning today’s painful annual tax season into an always-on background process, especially for multi-asset (fiat + crypto) users.
5. Personal “work agents” handle 30–50% of white-collar tasks.
By 2040, a material share of knowledge workers will orchestrate networks of AI agents that schedule, draft, negotiate, analyze, and monitor, with individuals acting as editors and strategists rather than operators.
6. Agent-native platforms become core B2B infrastructure.
By 2040, leading SaaS providers in finance, operations, and go-to-market will prioritize agent APIs over traditional dashboards, enabling seamless integration of autonomous AI workflows across systems. This shift shrinks organizational hierarchies as individuals and small teams deploy agent networks for tasks like contract negotiation, compliance checks, and revenue forecasting, amplifying productivity in line with Olive Capital's agent economy vision.
7. Creators and solo entrepreneurs run “micro-agency stacks”.
Independent creators and small studios will routinely deploy agent stacks for content production, distribution, and monetization, turning today’s side hustles into globally scalable micro-businesses with minimal headcount.
8. Selective disclosure becomes a regulatory and UX norm.
Instead of oversharing raw data, consumers will routinely prove facts (age, solvency, reputation, credentials) via privacy-preserving proofs, driven by regulation, user backlash, and new dev tooling for compliant, data-minimizing apps.
9. User-operated identity and data vaults go mainstream.
A large share of consumers will manage portable identity and data vaults that they selectively connect to apps and platforms, reversing the current model where platforms hoard and broker user data.
10. Consumer apps win by “privacy-first differentiation”.
By 2040, in competitive sectors like finance, social media, and productivity, top products will lead with selective disclosure UX, allowing users to prove attributes (e.g., creditworthiness or age) via privacy-preserving proofs without revealing full data, turning privacy into a core product wedge rather than a compliance afterthought.
Onwards to 2040, and feel free to contact us at Olive Capital if you want to discuss our thesis and share your views.
Raph.
Founder OliveCapital.vc